Keeping The Goal In Line - Vol. 1

Article by Ed Doyle

 KEEPING THE GOAL IN LINE

(A SERIES OF ARTICLES & OPINIONS ON WAGERING PRESENTED BY FRED HUBER & INTERNATIONAL SPORTS BROKERAGE)

The idea behind the articles and opinions that will be presented on a regular basis in this column is to give bettors an opportunity to evaluate a side of the betting game that really isn’t discussed as much as it should be…and that is The Betting Game.

If that sounds like a clever play on words, then I’ve accomplished my goal of getting your attention. Obviously finding the right team to bet on in any wagering engagement is top priority. But too often not enough time is spent on the Money Management side of the equation. That is what this new series is all about.

Over the course of the season I’ll evaluate the pros and cons of wagering methods, systems and the wagering instruments available. Hopefully it will give you the sort of insight that will allow you to put to best use the winning information you have in hand.  

Volume I – Issue 1

Friday, June 19

That’s Why They Call It A Tease

One of the most attractive gimmick bets in Football is THE TEASER. The question this article poses is quite simple. WHY?

Obviously the question is rhetorical on one level. The TEASE is attractive because it allows the bettor a sense of security beyond straight money line or line betting. Moving a team from +4 to +10 or from that nasty one point over a field goal of -4 to an actual dog of +2 is enticing to say the least. And you can play a TEASE by involving as few as two teams. Not only that, although with a two-team or any number of games tease you of course have to hit each bet, but you don’t have to pay all that much more in juice at $260 to win $200 as compared to $220 to win $200 with a straight line bet. Furthermore, as you increase the number of teams you involve in a teaser (you still get those tantalizing 6 points on each play) you actually begin to get odds.

So if you can get points and as you increase the number of plays actually increase to plus odds the deeper you go, why not use the teaser as a back-up?

In my opinion the answer is simple. It doesn’t work either financially or historically, and the Bookmaker wouldn’t offer the play (especially at what are depressed odds – see payoff charts below) if it didn’t provide him a higher margin of return.

(Breakdown Tells You Everything)

As a means of analyzing teasers I began in the most logical manner possible. I went back over every NFL game of last season and added 6 points to every spread loss or push.

Obviously, for the purposes of the argument I am about to draw out, there is no point in adding the six points to a side that has already won. Yes, that of course counts, and even if you win without the extra points you still have a winning portion of a combination that might include a side that did need the 6 points, and therein cash just the same, but the idea would be to make a winner out of a loser…because if you are looking for a hedge, it means you weren’t that confident as a bettor to begin with. If you were confident, you’d be combining two or more plays in a straight parlay, which of course returns a much higher payoff for an equal number of correct plays.

Let’s begin with a team by team breakdown from last year.

Team                 #SLP    RAT     PCT                        #SLP    RAT     PCT

ARIZONA             7       3-4     .43     ATLANTA           8       4-4     .50

BALTIMORE          5       2-3     .40      BUFFALO           9       0-9     .00

CAROLINA            8       4-4     .50     CHICAGO           9       6-3     .67

CINCINNATI         9       2-7     .22     CLEVELAND       10       3-7     .30

DALLAS               9       2-7     .22       DENVER           12       4-8    .33

DETROIT             9       1-8     .11      GREEN BAY        9        2-7    .22

HOUSTON            7       3-4     .43     INDIANAPOLIS  10        4-5-1  .44

JACKSONVILLE     10      2-8      .20     KANSAS CITY     8        2-6    .25

MIAMI                9       4-5     .44     MINNESOTA     11        5-5-1  .50

NEW ENGLAND      7      2-4-1    .33     NEW ORLEANS   6       2-2-2  .50

NY GIANTS          5       0-5      .00     NY JETS          9       1-7-1   .13

OAKLAND             9      2-7      .22     PHILADELPHIA    7        0-7    .00

PITTSBURGH         8      5-3      .63     SAN DIEGO       9       2-6-1   .25

SAN FRANCISCO    8     3-4-1    .43     SEATTLE           9      2-6-1    .25

ST. LOUIS           10     1-9      .10     TAMPA BAY        8       4-4     .50

TENNESSEE          5     2-2-1    .50     WASHINGTON    10      5-5     .50

TOTALS             125   38-84-3  .31     TOTALS           144   46-91-7  .34

OVERALL TOTALS  269  84-175-10

Codes…

#SLP - # of Spread Losses & Pushes

RAT – Record after 6 Points Added for Teaser

PCT – Percentage of Teaser Success

TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS…Even adding six points in your favor to each of the games that were spread losses playing against the number conventionally…you still would have lost approximately 67% of your plays. AND THAT IS JUST HITTING ONE…Doesn’t it get more difficult if you must go 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 or more in order to cash your Teaser Ticket? Again, that is a rhetorical question?

A PROPONENT OF THE TEASER could logically argue in the abstract that I am only presenting these significantly negative numbers by using a team that has already lost to the spread, which gives a player using those games only 5 ½ points or less of wiggle room…and that would be correct. But I believe that argument only bolsters the anti-Teaser point I am taking. If you have already been a sharp enough handicapper to win an against-the-spread bet, why would you need the extra points (when they don’t, as we’ve seen, protect the potential losing bet anyway) other than as a hedge against your choice. And if you are looking to find security “in case your selection loses,” why are you betting what is therein defined as “a nebulous at best play” in the first place?

ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SAME NUMBER OF TEAMS IN A PARLAY PAYS ASTRONOMICALLY MORE.

TAKE A LOOK AT THE TEASER PAYOFFS BELOW…

Now Compare Them To The Same Number Of Games In A Parlay…

Number Of Games         Teaser Payoff Odds      Parlay Payoff Odds

2 Teams                          10-11                             13-5

3 Teams                           9-5                                6-1

4 Teams                           3-1                               10-1

CONCLUSION – To each his/her own…but it would seem to me that the Teaser is a perfectly designed bet for the House, and that it definitely entices bettors that are unsure if their side(s) is strong enough to stand on their own.  

I would also suggest you think of it this way. One of the ways a House protects itself is to move the line as money goes into play. We have also long heard of the practice of Houses, when able, trading their bad debt (overabundance on one side) for the bad debt of another House (overabundance on the opposite side.)

Do you think that Houses trade off Teaser Money? If they don’t it means they are holding action on multiple game gimmicks. Would they do that if they had the least chance of getting caught on the short side? It is an enticing attraction…but you rarely get to take home the prize.

Which is why They Call It The Teaser!

All Articles

• Under the Shedrow