Paddock Pundits - Part V

Article by Ed Doyle

Paddock Pundits, by Ed Doyle

Friday, 5/1

( DERBY DOINGS – PART V)

 

THE WHY AND THE WHY NOT…A PREVIEW OF THE 135TH KENTUCKY DERBY LINEUP

Below are the excerpts from Tuesday’s edition of Paddock Pundits, in which I made my case for eliminating all but (then) seven contenders from consideration for the eventual top spot following two-minutes (give or take a second or two) of grueling race action late Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs.

The entire article DERBY DOINGS – PART IV, is archived on this site, but should you have already battled your way through my exercise in officious obfuscation, I’ve only included the names of those horses eliminated from the original contender list and a brief reason why before moving on to today’s PREVIEW.

Using a list of contenders based on the posted BRISNET Derby Past Performances that has now lost QUALITY ROAD to his lingering quarter crack, SQUARE EDDIE and JUST A COINCIDENCE to discretion I suppose and WIN WILLY to a “line” (whatever that is) on an X-ray, I will begin by dropping all those horses that had a second half mile differential of two full seconds (against the standard curve of :01 4/5) or more between their two final prep races. Those horses are…

ADVICE - :48 1/5…:50 1/5 – (2 Seconds)

DUNKIRK - :47 4/5…:49 4/5 – (2 Seconds)

FRIESAN FIRE - :48…:50 2/5 – (2 2/5 Seconds)

MUSKET MAN - :49 4/5…:47 4/5 – (2 Seconds)

The next stage of elimination is to jettison all those runners that have given up position from second call to the finish in either or both of their final two preps. Note that this is position and not lengths. There have been a few Derby winners that gave up ground in lengths but never relinquished the position they had gained by second call in both of their final two preps. Those eliminated under this condition are…

ATOMIC RAIN

FLYING PRIVATE

JOIN IN THE DANCE

JUST A COINCIDENCE

MINE THAT BIRD

PAPA CLEM

SQUARE EDDIE

TAKE THE POINTS

As I said, based on the original list of 23 we now have 11 remaining “contenders.” Unfortunately I am not able to apply comparative half mile numbers to two of those thirteen, the Dubai Duo of DESERT PARTY and REGAL RANSOM due to the non-exact distances of their desert races and unavailability of accurate splits.

Nonetheless, I am going to eliminate them for another reason. I always let something that has never happened before beat me when it happens the first time…and one of the totally unsuccessful prospects when it comes to legitimate Derby contention has been the Dubai to the Derby path. I am therefore eliminating both DESERT PARTY and REGAL RANSOM. We’re down to nine.

There is one more secondary standard of elimination and that is the fact that not only back through the last ten Derby winners, but back to Thunder Gulch in 1995, every Derby winner has finished at least first or second in a Grade I or Grade II race in one or both of their final two preps. There are two still on the list that have not met that qualification and will now be eliminated…

MR. HOT STUFF

SUMMER BIRD

And so we have the group deserving of making the final cut. Of course we are left with some of the heavier hitters. But if this process hasn’t eliminated a few horses you were considering and doesn’t surprise you with a few you weren’t, then you are a rather sharp and disciplined handicapper/bettor.

I bring you the 2009 Kentucky Derby contender list from which I will settle on a choice.

CHOCOLATE CANDY

GENERAL QUARTERS

HOLD ME BACK

I WANT REVENGE

PIONEER OF THE NILE

WEST SIDE BERNIE

WIN WILLY

 

(The WHY And The WHY NOT For The Top Contenders…)

Note – In the 36 hours that transpired since the construction of the last edition, the Post Positions have been drawn with the “official entrants” for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. The original group of “SEVEN” that I had isolated was reduced to “SIX” when trainer Hugh Robertson withdrew WIN WILLY from the race after it was discovered in a Tuesday X-Ray that the son of 2001 Derby winner Monarchos had a “line” in his front left ankle.  

The defection of WIN WILLY allowed room for Nick (“I want to go to the dance…I want to go to the dance”) Zito to enter NOWHERE TO HIDE at the last minute. Very briefly…had this colt been in Tuesday’s elimination process he’d have been quickly gone. His last three preps resulted in 4^th, 4^th and 4^th. Consistent…yes. Talented…no.

Let’s begin the PREVIEW with the WHY and WHY NOT for the remaining SIX from which I will select my Kentucky Derby choice. If time permits I’ll add a few reflections regarding where you might want to go for back-up horses given some other conditioning and experience hurdles that are still rather imposing.

(In Post Position Order)

WEST SIDE BERNIE (PP 1) – 30-1

(WHY) – Consistency and a nose for (almost) the finish line vs some pretty good competition…especially on traditional dirt tracks. The colt began his career by being thrown right into the deep (two-turn) end of the pool and all 7 of his career races have seen him travel a club house and far turn. He has a 4-1-2-1 career mark on dirt (his post-MSW races were all vs graded foes) that includes his MSW victory in his debut at Monmouth Park last August. And he has to be flattered by his solid second place finish behind Derby ML favorite I WANT REVENGE in the seminal Grade I Wood Memorial in his final prep. His sharp half mile breeze over the surface recently (third best of forty-six) signals he hasn’t lost the edge shown in his second place Wood finish. Like MONARCHOS, who ran a similar second in the Wood prior to winning the Derby in 2001, WEST SIDE BERNIE was 5^th by 6 ½ lengths at first call before finishing second, beaten  1 ½ lengths without being totally extended when passed by I WANT REVENGE late. MONARCHOS broke 5^th by 7 ½ lengths in a slightly faster Wood and finished second, beaten 2 ½ lengths, when quite calculatingly being reserved for the Derby by wily trainer John Ward Jr. WEST SIDE BERNIE gets the services of Stewart Elliott, who piloted SMARTY JONES to Derby victory in 2004, and could be cycling to his career best.

(WHY NOT) – First and foremost breeding. The colt is a son of Bernstein (Storm Cat), who has been a pleasant surprise early in his stud career. However, WEST SIDE BERNIE is one of only three runners in the Derby who has an average winning distance lineage of less than 7 furlongs from both his sire and dam sire (the other two are MUSKET MAN and ADVICE.) Trainer Kelly Breen is a newcomer to the Derby rank and file and while the colt has been competitive, he hasn’t won a race as a 3-year old and hasn’t found the winner’s circle since the second start of his career…the Grade III Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway Park.

HOLD ME BACK (PP 5) – 15-1

(WHY) -  Solid connections with trainer Bill Mott and jockey Kent Desormeaux, last year’s 2/3 hero and 1/3 villain rider of BIG BROWN in the saddle. It is definitely entertaining to note the irony of Desormeaux riding a horse by the name of HOLD ME BACK after most of the contention built around BIG BROWN’S Belmont Stakes failure was in the jock’s decision to pull up, or at least not persevere with the Derby and Preakness winner. Nonetheless, that was then. The son of Giant’s Causeway has done well under the Louisianan’s guidance, winning twice and finishing second in the Grade I Blue Grass the three times Kent has been handed the reins. The colt definitely has the preferable juvenile development, with back-to-back wins; a career debut triumph at Arlington and allowance win at Keeneland. He has done everything asked of him so far in 2009, winning the Grade II Lane’s End in his sophomore debut and continuing on with a solid late pace drive to finish second in the Grade I Blue Grass. It is also notable that in his first two career starts, and in both stakes races this year he has carried his solid pace well, tracking or stalking early and making up ground in the late stages. And if bloodlines are to be the determining factor, this guy has it in spades as his sire is arguably the best at influencing long-windedness while the female line (Unbridled’s Song) lays in plenty of sustainable speed.

(WHY NOT) – Although both BIG BROWN and STREET SENSE bulldozed the “only-two-races-as-a-three-year-old” hurdle that stood high since 1983, it is still a measureable factor and it is arguable that both the 2008 and 2007 Derby winners had developed “class” superior to what HOLD ME BACK has produced…STREET SENSE as a juvenile and BIG BROWN with his dominant Florida Derby triumph.  The most dramatic hesitation, however, comes from the colt’s abject failure to fire in the Grade II Remsen at Aqueduct in his final juvenile race. That was the only time he had ever been on traditional dirt, so  he definitely needs to prove he can handle it.

CHOCOLATE CANDY (PP 11) – 20-1

(WHY) – The son of Candy Ride, a sire that has produced 26 winners from only 50 starters so far in 2009, is one of those mile speed on the male side and long-winded foundation on the female side crosses that has had plenty of success in recent Derbies. He has been as consistent and as accomplished as you could ask for since lengthening to a mile or further seven races ago. Over that span he has won 4 times, finished second twice and third once. What is even more pronounced in his favor is his ability to continue at a solid cruising speed over a distance of ground. During the 7 two turn races he has never been further off the pace than 6 and averaged 3.7 lengths back at first call. At second call he was again no further off than 6 lengths and averaged 2.7 lengths back. He picked up ground from second call to the finish in every race. His six starts as a juvenile also gives him tremendous foundation. The last Southern Cal shipper to have a say in the Derby was of course 50-1 long-shot surprise Giacomo…ridden by none other than Mike Smith, who will be aboard this Jerry Hollendorfer trained youngster. The conditioner has won with 21% of his 400 plus starters in 2009 and has hit the board on 56% of those occasions. It is also significantly noteworthy that in an era when synthetic to dirt has been a sticking point, Hollendorfer wins with 32% of his transfers from all-weather to dirt surfaces and that the colt turned in a sparkling second best of 26 five furlong breeze in :59 1/5 over the CD surface on Monday. It must also be mentioned, should the predicted rain turn the surface sloppy or muddy, sire Candy Ride has produced an amazing 57% success rate from his mud starters. The next two that even approach that ridiculously successful number are Vindication (the sire of NOWHERE TO HIDE) at 30% and SKY MESA, the sire of JOIN IN THE DANCE and GENERAL QUARTERS at 27%.

(WHY NOT) – For all the upside of the conditioner’s numbers and the solid drill, this will be the first time in his 9 race career that he will race over a traditional dirt surface at a time when none of the California shippers have even hit the board in the Derby since Giacomo’s victory in 2005..or since synthetics were mandated in 2006. CHOCOLATE CANDY also has to find a way to get past PIONEER OF THE NILE, who has out-gamed him the last two times they’ve met (the Grade I Cash Call Futurity as juveniles and the recent Grade I Santa Anita Derby) and solve I WANT REVENGE, who also topped him in the Cash Call.

GENERAL QUARTERS (PP 12) – 20-1

(WHY) – Enters the Derby off one of the sharpest and most visually impressive final preps of any of the 2009 contenders. His solid stride and stalking run while wide just about the entire way in the Grade I Blue Grass was a race that if repeated would have him on or about to assume the lead as they hit the eighth pole. I’ve repeated this sustainable speed and ability to run evenly for the first mile for any number of reasons. But it is germane to signify that to win the Derby a horse must be taking control by the time they reach the furlong marker. In the last 54 Kentucky Derbies the eventual winner was either on the lead, a length or less off the lead or in second place when the field hit the furlong marker 51 times. Let me repeat that. 51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were on the lead, a length or less off the lead or in second place at the furlong marker! This is exactly the style of race that GENERAL QUARTERS ran in three of his last four. In fact, of the four horses out of the twenty in the race that have managed to average a triple digit E2 mid-pace BRIS Speed Number  (I WANT REVENGE, ATOMIC RAIN and JOIN IN THE DANCE are the others) only he and I WANT REVENGE have managed to hold ground with strong late pace. Owner/trainer Tom McCarthy (one-horse stable, retired school teacher/principal and all that) has obviously kept the son of Sky Mesa on edge with two sharp breezes over the CD surface, and has managed to acquire the services of Julian Leparoux.

(WHY NOT) – Despite the two sharp drills over the surface, GENERAL QUARTERS also has two CD clunkers on his resume since breaking his maiden at Louisville in his career debut. In addition, until he moved forward with his upset win in the Blue Grass, he hadn’t set foot away from Tampa Bay Downs since running second in the Inaugural Stakes there (his first of four straight races over that sandy surface) on December 27. And in those four races he managed just one win…the Grade III Sam Davis. He has been defeated on two occasions by MUSKET MAN, who he will of course face again on Saturday, and JOIN IN THE DANCE when off the board in the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. That “other” Florida locale hasn’t produced much recently.

I WANT REVENGE (PP 13) – 3-1

(WHY) – In the one minute, forty-nine and a fraction seconds it took the son of Stephen Got Even to rear at the start, get into traffic problems on the turn and wheel out after waiting behind rivals to blow by them all in the seminal Grade I Wood Memorial, the Jeff Mullins trained colt earned ML favoritism in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Of course it doesn’t hurt that he has never been off the board in eight career starts (8-3-1-4) and timed his development just right as he has in his last two starts delivered the best dirt speed of any on his nineteen Derby rivals. His versatility is also a major asset. In the Grade III Gotham two starts back, his first on a non-Southern California synthetic surface, he went right out to press the pace and drew off when urged. In the Wood he was forced to rally from dead last, but never panicked as he allowed jockey Joe Talamo to settle him early and move him on cue. The colt left for Louisville shortly after the Wood and has had three very proficient drills over the surface, including a best of forty-seven half mile breeze in :47 1/5 on Tuesday. While Stephen Got Even’s best attribute and sire influence has been mile to mile and a sixteenth speed, there is of course more than enough stamina from second generation A. P. Indy and his line. Dam Sire Roy also provides stamina and Championship class, so there is little doubt he will get a distance of ground. It is also of major significance that he is the only horse in the Derby to have paired up triple digit E2 and Late BRIS Speed Numbers in each of his final two preps. Although perhaps not as significant, it is also worth noting that in the two New York races in which he came into his own, the colt raced without the medication, Bute, which is permissible in Southern California, but not in New York. 

(WHY NOT) – He was beaten on two occasions in California by PIONEER OF THE NILE and three races back in the Robert Lewis Stakes he also finished behind PAPA CLEM. He might be a horse for the circuit, and only WEST SIDE BERNIE has made it here from any of the New York preps, so the class there might be open to dispute. And despite winning with 24% of his 2009 starters, trainer Mullins only manages a 10% success rate and 35% on-the-board proficiency when saddling Stakes Race performers.

PIONEER OF THE NILE (PP 16) – 4-1

(WHY) – Four straight Graded Stakes victories and six straight journeys in either a Grade I or Grade II race speaks volumes. The son of Empire Maker couldn’t be more perfectly balanced or bred for speed and stamina on both sides of his bloodlines. It is also well-established by now that the better Empire Maker progeny take time to develop, but if and when they do, it is very good form. Like I WANT REVENGE, he also has the to-die-for versatility that allows him to adjust to any pace. When the opposition seemed intent on walking through :48 3/5…1:12 1/5 and 1:36 3/5 splits in the Santa Anita Derby, the Bob Baffert trainee was pressing the pace the entire way. When Baffert was still schooling him back in February the colt was allowed to settle back early and pick up all the leaders in the final stages. In March he stalked a faster pace in the Grade II San Felipe and took over after relaxing down the backstretch and moving up to press on the far turn. Interestingly, the colt began his career with Bill Mott and only won one of his first four races. His four race streak has come under the tutelage of Baffert. Obviously this is a race horse that thrives on the sort of demanding drill schedule the trainer believes in, whereas Mott gets better results with horses that relish a more relaxing, time-to-develop atmosphere. What this all means is that this colt may not yet have fired his best shot…and despite a strong effort in February, another in March and a final one in April, the youngster came right back with a bullet half mile at Santa Anita on April 15 before shipping to Louisville and has ramped it up with two quick breezes in his first ever trials over traditional dirt. Garrett Gomez had a number of choices, yet it couldn’t have been too difficult to stay here, as he has been aboard for all four wins during the current streak.

(WHY NOT) – The aforementioned Synthetic mandate curse. None of the Southern California based three-year olds have hit the board in the last three years since the state went all (as Zito puts it) “attic filler.” This may not be an anomaly. Watching horses run over the synthetic surfaces in California, I’ve come to discern what, for lack of a more creative rendering, I refer to as “a non-demanding race environment that is gentle to horses and therein doesn’t toughen them.” It is an essay for another time and place, but I also believe that the only thing synthetic surfaces in California and in Illinois and Kentucky have in common is the word synthetic. You can watch horses run at Santa Anita or Hollywood and watch them run at Keeneland and Turfway and it is as different in stride and action as it is from Keeneland and Arlington to Belmont and Fair Grounds. Eastern and mid-western racing has become more grueling and the product is tougher. This could be a very big WHY NOT for PIONEER OF THE NILE and CHOCOLATE CANDY, even as good as they appear to be. Like it or not, the best speed of the West Coast horses has not been as fast as the average winning speed needed for the Derby and this colt might suffer from that.

That wraps up the WHY and WHY NOT of the six horses that I believe have a chance of winning the Kentucky Derby.

(Don’t Automatically Throw Out The Standards With The Exception Wash)

Before I close out this edition of Paddock Pundits, however, I’d like to give you a few observations to consider regarding those standards that I still believe strongly in, even though they have been a bit bruised and scratched the last few years. Maybe I’m stubborn. But just because BIG BROWN won the Derby with only three career starts, the first three-year old to do that since Nero fiddled or something like that, and just one year earlier STREET SENSE became the first Derby winner since 1983 and only the second in over 50 years to win the Run For The Roses with only two sophomore starts doesn’t mean I have to subject myself to the sarcastic tone of talking heads and wise-guys who seem to relish crowing about how those two horses have rewritten thoroughbred handicapping history and the wise-guys that are delighting in the failure of the standards to “hold” seem to believe that they are the only ones that selected a winner while going against them. FLASH GUYS…everyone had BIG BROWN last year despite his flimsy three career race foundation because the 2008 three-year old crop was about as accomplished as the painted bronze ring chasers on the carousel at Nunley’s Amusement Park.  (If you didn’t grow up on Long island you are forgiven for not getting the reference.)

Smirk away you disclaim mongers…those exceptions prove the rule. And for those open-minded enough to read further…those wishing a bit of insight when putting together their exactas and trifectas, I offer up the following…

(BIG BROWN Wins With Only Three Lifetime Starts…STREET SENSE Wins With Only Two Sophomore Starts…BARBARO Wins Off A Five Week Layoff…It’s Time To Throw Out The Standards…Or Is It?)

In 2006 you had to go so far back to find the last time a three-year old won the Derby with more than four weeks since his final prep yours truly was just a gleam in…In 2007 you had to go back to 1983 and through about 100 that tried, to find a horse that won the Kentucky Derby with less than three starts as a sophomore. But in succession, BARBARO and STREET SENSE respectively put a significant tarnish on those foundation based standards. Was it time to disregard them altogether?

Obviously in 2008 a number of sharp trainers thought so as no fewer than seven three-year olds attempted to buck one or both of those standards. Florida Derby winner and eventual Kentucky Derby winner BIG BROWN  successfully hurdled three very high standards as made only two starts as a three-year old, had only three lifetime starts (no horse with fewer than five career starts had won the Run For The Roses in close to a century) and his first in five weeks. However, and it is a very Big, however, almost forgotten by now youngsters by the names of COLONEL JOHN, COURT VISION, MONBA,  RECAPTURETHEGLORY  and TALE OF EKATI, each of whom had made only two starts in 2008 and SMOOTH AIR, who hasn’t raced since finishing a distant second to BIG BROWN five weeks earlier.

Obviously BIG BROWN wasn’t hampered…but what about the rest?  I would suggest that just as STREET SENSE and BARBARO did not signify that the hurdles were shortened for a number of others that they vanquished, neither were the standards easy to dismiss in regard to the others that watched BIG BROWN get smaller and smaller in front of them in the Kentucky Derby.

In other words, exactly where did all those other six not named BIG BROWN wind up?

TALE OF EKATI – Fourth – beaten 11 lengths at 37.4-1

RECAPTURETHEGLORY – Fifth - beaten 12 lengths at 49-1

COLONEL JOHN – Sixth – beaten 14 ½ lengths at 4.9-1

SMOOTH AIR – Eleventh – beaten 21 ¼ lengths at 42-1

COURT VISION – Thirteenth – beaten 24 ½ lengths at 12.7-1

MONBA – Last of twenty – beaten “what difference does it make” at 31.6-1

To try and give you a relatively accurate assessment of why I still trust in how significant a role conditioning plays I went back through a 2003 to 2007 sample group and broke the fields down into two categories; those that had their final prep within three weeks or less of the Derby and those that had their last race four weeks or further from the Derby.

What proved very interesting was that in all five years, it was collectively better (remember, we’re talking Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta) to have had a race three weeks out or less than to have one four weeks out or longer.

2003

Final prep three weeks or less -10 of 16 – 62.5% - produced top three finishers – 100% of Exacta and Trifecta and 75% of Superfecta. Three weeks beat four weeks in all categories.

Final prep four weeks or more – 6 of 16 – 37.5% - one finisher in Superfecta – 25% of that bet…less than the 37.5% of the field.

2004

Final prep three weeks or less – 12 of 18 – 67% - produced three of the top four finishers, or 75%, which is higher than the 67% opportunity.

Final prep four weeks or more – 6 of 18 – 33% - one finisher in top four, or 25%...again less than the percentage of the field.

2005

Final prep three weeks or less – 13 of 20 – 65% - once again produced three of the top four finishers or 75% of the Exotic tickets.

Final prep four weeks or more – 7 of 20 – 35% - only one runner in top four or 25% of ticket…again below the percentage of runners.

2006

Final prep three weeks or less – only 8 of 20 – 40% - but those eight still produced two of the top three or 67% and even though only two of the top four…that 50% still beat the 40% inclusion rate.

Final prep four weeks or more – 12 of 20 – 60% - Barbaro won the race and both fourth place dead-heat horses were four weeks away. So the 60% covered 50%...again, less than the percentage of runners.

2007

Final prep three weeks or less – only 7 of 20 – 35% - yet those 7 runners produced two of the top three finishers and two of the top four or 67% and 50% respectively…again being the superior performing standard.

Final prep four weeks or more – 13 of 20 – 65% - produced 33% of top three and 50% of top four. Again falling short.

2008

Final prep three weeks or less – following the trend of 2007, only 8 of 20 – 40% – but quite dramatically different than the earlier figures as not a single one of the eight finished in the top seven.

Final prep four weeks or more – 12 of 20 – 60% - produced the exacta, trifecta and superfecta.

In 2009, only 6 of 20 will be running within three weeks or less while 14 will go with four weeks or more separating their final prep from the Kentucky Derby. It appears as though the methodology is moving in the direction of longer time between the final prep and the Derby.

Clearly from 2003 to 2007 the numbers directed you to look somewhat more at horses that prepped in the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes and Lexington than the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Illinois Derby and Florida Derby.

So what do we take from 2008’s complete turnaround? It is hard to tell, but remember, I continue to believe that last year was a dreadful group by comparison and I would rely more on the 2003-2007 figures if looking for ultimate elimination given the choice between horses you can’t otherwise separate. But with only six to choose from in 2009, the more successful performance by the three weeks out group that also had more runners to choose from tightens the noose. In actuality, if an acute majority of runners now run last four weeks out, then that eventually becomes the shorter end of the curve and evolving standard...which of course still validates the use of standards.

Again, these are not factors that isolate a winner, but rather contribute to constructing the Exotics.

You already know which group the winner is coming from…and interestingly in 2009, two them raced three weeks ago and four of them three weeks ago.

SEE HOW EASY THIS GAME IS!

 

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