Paddock Pundits- Part IV

Article by Ed Doyle

Paddock Pundits, by Ed Doyle

Tuesday, 4/28

( DERBY DOINGS – PART IV)

 

YOU CAN’T BET THEM ALL – SO HOW ABOUT CRUISING SPEED AND CONSISTENCY?

 

(It’s Elimination Time)

On Wednesday they will draw the Post Positions for the 20…or less…horses that will make the final cut for the 135^th Kentucky Derby. With the exceptions of the people that own and train them and a few very obsessed handicappers, minds have already changed many times as to who will win it, and I dare say will change again leading up to the Derby.

Like it or not, at some point you have to begin finding the right contenders. Most horseplayers will begin to analyze with a list of what to like and begin there. Me, I like to eliminate and then find what to like. So let’s begin with what it is I’m going to eliminate, and why.

The first step is to find the most consistent horses with the best cruising speed. Now, that might sound like a very general statement that belies objective analysis, but nothing could be further from the truth.

First off, there is no way any analyst can do any more than speculate as to which of the handful of solid Derby contenders are going to get 10 furlongs. Obviously none of these runners have been the distance so there is no measuring guide. So how do you get to a point where you might even speculate regarding the potential to successfully navigate the mile and a quarter? By establishing a curve based on what Derby winners in the past have done and what those winners had in common in preps leading up to the Derby. This sounds like a simple process, but when you still hear conversations regarding whether a person likes a speed ball, a middle distance runner or a deep closer, simply because they can find a recent example of any of those kind of runners winning the Derby, maybe truly analyzing what it takes isn’t such a simple way of doing things.

What I’m getting at is that even with the “visual” memory of WAR EMBLEM wiring the 2002 Derby, SMARTY JONES pressing the pace and swimming to the lead and victory in the sloppy 2004 Derby and STREET SENSE arriving on the scene from next-to-last in the early going in 2007, each of those colts actually shared a very similar running attribute that has been a part of just about every Derby winner in recent memory: a running style that has its own parameters within which the winning horses fall and which manifests itself in their final two preps.

That attribute is sustainable speed.

Everyone’s approach to analyzing the Derby has a starting point in subjective conclusion. Mine is simple. Since it is impossible to know with certainty which 3-year old is going to negotiate the 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May, I can only use ability they have shown and whether or not that ability meets the standards exhibited by past Derby winners. Given that, I firmly believe that a horse with sustainable speed and a pronounced cruising style from the first half mile to the second half mile makes the cut.

That is where we are going to venture in today’s edition of PADDOCK PUNDITS.

(Defining Sustainable Speed And Consistency)

All the above is all well and good, but it is merely page filler without a definition of sustainable and consistent speed as regards the potential for Kentucky Derby success.

I’m going to start by listing the commonality of the Last Ten Kentucky Derby Winners. This commonality is based on a curve that compares their time for their second half mile in the Kentucky Derby with their second half mile times in each of their last two prep races. You will see, as I have, that the Kentucky Derby winner has fallen within a certain performance curve built around those three races, and any horse outside that curve can be eliminated from contention. For the most part this will eliminate some suspects that you might have considered marginal to begin with, but it will allow you to eliminate them without having any compunction about having such an “outsider” in the back of your mind. There is also a product of sustainable speed that does translate in the added distance attempt on Derby day, and that also allows you to eliminate a horse or two that you might not think should be eliminated.

Directly below are the last ten winners of the Kentucky Derby. Next to each horse are three half mile times. These times are (in order) the second half mile time for the Kentucky Derby and the most recent and second most recent prep. Those preps were at anywhere from a mile to a mile and an eighth. Of course all but CHARISMATIC, who famously ran back in the mile and a sixteenth Lexington two weeks before the Derby after running a substandard mile and an eighth in the Santa Anita Derby prior to that.

Prior to their final prep, both WAR EMBLEM and BIG BROWN ran a Mile. BARBARO and MONARCHOS each ran their final two preps at a mile and an eighth while the rest went a mile and a sixteenth before closing out at a mile and an eighth.

(LAST TEN DERBY WINNERS)

BIG BROWN - :48 3/5…:49 1/5…:50

STREET SENSE - :48 3/5…49 2/5…:48

BARBARO - :49 1/5…49 4/5…:49 4/5

GIACOMO - :48 2/5…49 1/5…48 2/5

SMARTY JONES - :50…49 4/5…48

FUNNY CIDE - :49…48 2/5…48 4/5

WAR EMBLEM - :49 3/5…:49 2/5…52

MONARCHOS - :47 3/5…:48 3/5…:49

FUSAICHI PEGASUS - :48 2/5…:48 1/5…:49 1/5

CHARISMATIC - :49 2/5…:47 4/5…49

Every one of the above winners had this in common: the second half mile of their two final preps fell within a curve of separation that did not exceed :01 4/5 seconds. Why is this important? Because it indicated the developing consistency of cruising speed that was needed for extending that speed another 1 to 1.5 furlongs. This really becomes a factor to look at when you consider that eight out of the last ten Derby winners then ran the second half mile in the Derby within 4/5ths of a second or less differential than they did in their final prep, the ninth was within one second, and only CHARISMATIC, the only Derby winner to have a differential larger than one second (:01 1/5) was also the only one to have run a mile and a sixteenth and not a mile and an eighth in his final prep.

There is also one other very important common factor, which is an obvious product of sustainable and consistent cruising speed. None of the ten winners gave up position from second call to the finish in either of their final two preps.

Therefore it is possible to begin building a legitimate contender list by eliminating any of this year’s Derby pretenders.

Using a list of 23 potential contenders based on the posted BRISNET Derby Past Performances of 24 that has now lost QUALITY ROAD to his lingering quarter crack I will begin by dropping all those horses that had a second half mile differential of two full seconds (against the standard curve of :01 4/5) or more between their two final prep races. Those horses are…

ADVICE - :48 1/5…:50 1/5 – (2 Seconds)

DUNKIRK - :47 4/5…:49 4/5 – (2 Seconds)

FRIESAN FIRE - :48…:50 2/5 – (2 2/5 Seconds)

MUSKET MAN - :49 4/5…:47 4/5 – (2 Seconds)

It is definitely interesting that four very talented youngsters fall outside the curve…but again, you have to go with what the history tells you.

The next stage of elimination is to jettison all those runners that have given up position from second call to the finish in either or both of their final two preps. Note that this is position and not lengths. There have been a few Derby winners that gave up ground in lengths but never relinquished the position they had gained by second call in both of their final two preps. Those eliminated under this condition are…

ATOMIC RAIN

FLYING PRIVATE

JOIN IN THE DANCE

JUST A COINCIDENCE

MINE THAT BIRD

PAPA CLEM

SQUARE EDDIE

TAKE THE POINTS

That means we have eliminated twelve runners from the starting list of twenty three based on very sound standards.

(Secondary Eliminations Reduce The List To Seven)

As I said, based on the original list of 23 we now have 11 remaining “contenders.” Unfortunately I am not able to apply comparative half mile numbers to two of those thirteen, the Dubai Duo of DESERT PARTY and REGAL RANSOM due to the non-exact distances of their desert races and unavailability of accurate splits.

Nonetheless, I am going to eliminate them for another reason. I always let something that has never happened before beat me when it happens the first time…and one of the totally unsuccessful prospects when it comes to legitimate Derby contention has been the Dubai to the Derby path. I am therefore eliminating both DESERT PARTY and REGAL RANSOM. We’re down to nine.

There is one more secondary standard of elimination and that is the fact that not only back through the last ten Derby winners, but back to Thunder Gulch in 1995, every Derby winner has finished at least first or second in a Grade I or Grade II race in one or both of their final two preps. There are two still on the list that have not met that qualification and will now be eliminated…

MR. HOT STUFF

SUMMER BIRD

…and so we have the group deserving of making the final cut. Of course we are left with some of the heavier hitters. But if this process hasn’t eliminated a few horses you were considering and doesn’t surprise you with a few you weren’t, then you are a rather sharp and disciplined handicapper/bettor.

I bring you the 2009 Kentucky Derby contender list from which I will settle on a choice.

CHOCOLATE CANDY

GENERAL QUARTERS

HOLD ME BACK

I WANT REVENGE

PIONEER OF THE NILE

WEST SIDE BERNIE

WIN WILLY

In my next edition I will examine the WHY and the WHY NOT for each, as well as make things even more difficult by pointing out that all of the above only applies to which 3-year old should win the Kentucky Derby. Those that fill out the exacta, trifecta and superfecta are an entirely different story.

Until next time!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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